Guide
Aurora forecast guide: read the northern lights map | Aurora Monitor
An aurora forecast helps you choose when to look, but it cannot guarantee a display. Aurora Monitor brings the activity map together with conditions at your chosen location. Start with current data, then check whether your local sky allows a view.
How to check the aurora forecast tonight
Open the aurora map and choose your observing location. Check the data timestamp and the extent of the auroral oval, then compare the space weather with darkness and cloud cover. Revisit the readings during the evening because conditions can change.
At northern mid-latitudes, an open northern horizon is useful; in the southern hemisphere, look toward the south. A strong storm can spread the display across more of the sky. Moonlight and city lights reduce contrast for faint aurora, but do not rule out a bright display.
What does the NOAA OVATION map show?
The coloured oval is output from NOAA’s aurora model, not a photograph of the sky. Its short forecast horizon depends on available solar-wind observations. The observation time, forecast time and current clock time can differ, so read the timestamp alongside the map.
The model does not describe every factor affecting visibility from the ground. Clouds, twilight, obstacles and sky brightness can hide a display even when the oval looks promising. Treat a point estimate as guidance rather than a personal guarantee of seeing the lights.
Reading Kp, Bz and the solar wind
Kp measures global geomagnetic disturbance on a scale from 0 to 9. It helps describe broad activity, but one Kp value cannot guarantee visibility in a particular city. Geomagnetic latitude and the development of each storm matter.
Bz describes the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field. A sustained southward direction favours energy transfer into Earth’s magnetosphere. Read it together with solar-wind speed and its recent trend, rather than using a single measurement or a rigid threshold.
Darkness, clouds and a useful observing spot
Cloud forecasts are as practical as space-weather readings: solid overcast can hide the aurora. Check the actual sky and short-term weather changes as well. Choose a safe, accessible location with a broad view and no bright lights in your line of sight.
Dark hours depend on the date and latitude. Summer twilight makes faint displays harder to see, especially at high latitudes. A camera may record colours that appear as a pale glow to your eyes.
Using 2D, 3D and the timeline
The 2D map makes regional comparisons straightforward, while the 3D globe shows Earth’s geometry and the oval around the poles. Both views use the same data. Moving back on the timeline selects available model frames for that time; “Live” restores the latest data.
Use longer-range outlooks for planning, then check fresh measurements and weather before travelling. The NOAA model description and NOAA observing advice explain the forecast’s scope and limitations.
Common questions
- Does high Kp guarantee northern lights at my location?
- No. Kp is global. The storm’s development, auroral oval, darkness and weather also affect visibility. A location’s suggested Kp threshold is approximate.
- Is the aurora map a live camera image?
- No. The oval comes from a NOAA model and represents estimated auroral activity, not an image of the sky above you.
- Can an aurora forecast predict an exact hour next week?
- That level of precision is not reliable. Longer outlooks help with planning; current observations and local weather are more useful for deciding when to look.
- Does the map also show satellites?
- The separate Starlink mode displays calculated satellite positions and passes for a chosen location. Satellite orbits and aurora forecasts are different types of data.
Starlink positions and passes guide
